Betting breakdown: UFC 224 Underdog Betting Pick

Disclaimer: any betting advice given here is for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to gamble on fights, please do so legally and responsibly and understand that it is at your own risk.

UFC 224 takes place May 12, at Jeunesse Arena, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Today we will be taking a in depth look at my underdog pick for the card.

Kelvin Gastelum ITD +195 (Bovada)

I really like Gastelum here. Jacare is a legend and he has the skill to submit anyone should the fight go to to the ground, however I think he will struggle to get Kelvin down. Souza is elite on the ground, but doesn’t necessarily have elite takedowns, unlike D1 All American Chris Weidman, who was able to take Kelvin down relatively easy.


In the striking department, while Souza is still dangerous(evidenced by his spectacular headkick KO of Derek Brunson in January) I expect Kelvin to have a significant speed advantage, in addition to some of the best boxing in the division, if not the entire UFC. I expect Gastelum to be patient, avoid the takedown early and use his speed and crisp combinations to put Souza away in the first round.


At 38 years old Jacare is nearing the end of his career, while Kelvin at 26 is still coming into his prime, as inevitably happens in this sport, I believe we will witness another changing of the guard Saturday night in Rio.

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